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COVER STORY JANUARY 23, 2026 | The Indian Eye 4

WAR ON IRAN

IMPACT ON

INDIA

As Washington hardens its stance on Iran with threats of military action and punitive tariffs,
India faces a complex geopolitical and economic squeeze that could undermine its regional interests,

trade competitiveness and already-strained ties with the United States

already under strain.
OUR BUREAU
India’s ties with Iran are not
New Delhi / Washington, DC ideological but deeply pragmatic.
Tehran has long been a critical part-
ndia’s decision to advise its na- ner in India’s westward connectivity
tionals to leave Iran amid rapidly
Iescalating tensions is more than a strategy, particularly through the
Chabahar Port project. Conceived
routine consular precaution. It is an as early as 2003, Chabahar provides
early signal of how a potential US war India a rare overland and maritime
on Iran — combined with President route to Afghanistan and Central
Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff pol- Asia, bypassing Pakistan. It also
icy — could negatively impact New forms a key node in the Internation-
Delhi’s economic interests, region- al North–South Transport Corridor
al strategy and delicate relationship (INSTC), linking India to Russia and
with Washington. While India has Europe.
publicly sought to downplay the im- To operationalize this, Indian
mediate trade impact, the broader Ports Global Limited (IPGL) signed
implications of conflict and coercive a long-term agreement with Iran’s
economic measures are far more con- Port & Maritime Organization, re-
sequential and long-term. placing the earlier 2016 pact that
Rising tensions and concerns had been renewed annually due to
sanctions uncertainty. Chabahar has
he Ministry of External Af- already been used for strategic con-
fairs (MEA) confirmed this
Tweek that around 9,000 In- signments, including 20,000 tonnes
of wheat aid to Afghanistan in 2023.
dians are currently in Iran, most of However, the project’s future
them students, and that multiple ad- now hinges on a conditional US
visories have been issued urging them sanctions waiver issued by the US
to leave the country by “whatever Treasury on October 28, 2025, valid
means are available.” MEA spokes- only until April 26, 2026. India has
person Randhir Jaiswal said India confirmed it is “engaged with the US
was “closely tracking developments” side” to ensure continuity. But a full-
and was “committed to doing whatev- scale US–Iran confrontation could
er is necessary” for their well-being. easily render such waivers politically
These advisories come against External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar with Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi, on
the backdrop of widespread an- untenable.
If war breaks out, Chabahar —
ti-government protests in Iran, a the sidelines of the SCO Foreign Ministers Meeting in Tianjin (@DrSJaishankar X/ANI file photo) located not far from sensitive mar-
deepening economic crisis marked itime routes — could be directly
by inflation and currency collapse, harmed or executed, and has open- is intertwined with a much larger affected, disrupting India’s connec-
and increasingly explicit threats from ly encouraged demonstrators, saying strategic dilemma: how to protect its tivity plans and undermining years of
US President Donald Trump. Trump that “help is on the way.” interests in Iran without triggering diplomatic investment.
has warned of “very strong action” For India, the immediate hu- punitive action from Washington at
against Tehran if protesters are manitarian concern for its citizens a time when Indo-US relations are Continued on next page... >>

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